Mining's role in our future green economy
Few outside of the mining industry know how integral mining is to the development of the clean tech and infrastructure required for a low carbon economy. The only way a circular economy would be achievable by 2050, is if we invest in innovation within our supply chains now, so that mineral intensive products like batteries can be easily taken apart and recycled.
There is consensus that new-mined resources will be required in the short term to enable green technologies and infrastructure. But while geological resources to deliver the required metals exist, balancing the sharp increase in mining development (by 500%, according to this US Geological Survey) with environmental and social governance issues is a clear challenge.
Building up the low carbon economy
Photovoltaic cells require aluminum, copper, silver and steel and elements indium, selenium and tellurium, depending on the type of technology. Wind energy demands steel, copper, aluminum, zinc and lead as well as neodymium for turbine magnets. Hydro power demands concrete and steel for basic infrastructure in addition to copper and aluminum for power transmission.
Energy storage will be needed for wind and solar electricity generation as well as BEVs. A mixture of graphite, lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese is needed for state-of-the-art BEV batteries (90% of the anticipated demand for energy storage), whereas vanadium is the metal of choice for static power storage for industrial needs, such as solar and wind farms (World Bank Report in 2020).
Narrow list of sources for Lithium, Graphite and Cobalt
According to the US Geological Survey on Mineral Commodity Summaries for graphite, 62% of the total world annual production of graphite comes from mines in China. This World Bank Report cites that the market requires around 68 million tonnes by 2050. China estimates that it can deliver around half of that from its published reserves and additional graphite could be sourced in Brazil, Mozambique and Madagascar.
Until other countries are able to supply or find other avenues to source cobalt, as it stands, over 60% of the world’s cobalt supply comes as a by-product from mining copper in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). According to the US Geological Survey on Mineral Commodity Summaries for cobalt, before it’s available to the industry, it’s refined in China before it is available to industry. It’s not hard to imagine what’s wrong with this picture. For one, periodic disruption as a result of political instability in the DRC, and the country’s ongoing child labour issues almost guarantee negative implications, amidst proposed legislative bans of imports made with forced or child labour internationally.
According to a 2018 report on cobalt, published by the EU, one current alternative to the above consists of waste material of existing terrestrial mines. For instance, unrecovered cobalt from existing nickel mines in Europe could supply 50% of the metal needed for forthcoming European Li-ion battery plants.
Finally, 50% of the world’s lithium comes from hardrock deposits in Australia, or salar brines in Chile and Argentina. Areas in the UK, Portugal and Germany show great potential for lithium sourcing from brines and hardrock sources. Bolivia has also been found to contain lithium sources. Whether or not these countries will be willing to mine, and given the governance issues related to mining in Chile/Argentina’s Atacama Desert, the path forward for lithium remains unclear.
The importance of building systems with recycling in mind
Until 2035, recycling metals will not meet the above demand. Projecting 245 million BEVs on the road y 2035, keeping in mind average car scrappage rates of 6.9%, means 17 million vehicles per year could provide recoverable metals for a considerable percentage of the world’s new BEVs with appropriate recycling strategies.
According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, for the US, this means that with optimal recycling rates, 30–40% of the USA’s needs for both lithium and cobalt could be met by recycling after 2035.
